POKER MATHS · TEXAS HOLD'EM · EXACT COUNTS, NOT SIMULATIONS
Poker flop odds
Pick any two hole cards and see exactly how often the flop gives you each hand, from one pair to a straight flush, plus how often you flop a flush draw or straight draw. Every number is counted over all 19,600 possible flops.
The flop numbers most players need: a pocket pair flops a set or better 11.8% of the time (about 7.5 to 1 against). Two unpaired cards pair at least one of them 32.4% of the time (about 2.1 to 1). Two suited cards flop a made flush 0.84% of the time (about 118 to 1) and a flush draw 10.9% of the time. Connected cards like J-T flop a made straight about 1.3% of the time. Use the calculator for your exact hand, because these figures move a little with the ranks and suits you hold.
Flop odds calculator
Choose your two hole cards. The calculator deals every one of the 19,600 possible flops from the 50 cards you can't see and counts the result. Nothing is simulated or estimated, and nothing you enter leaves your browser.
Your best five-card hand after the flop
| Hand | Flops | Chance | Odds against | Of which your cards improved |
|---|
Draws on the flop
| Draw | Flops | Chance | Odds against |
|---|
How to read this: "Improves your hand" means the five cards make a better category than your two cards alone and better than the three flop cards alone, so a pair that sits only on the board doesn't count. A strong draw is a flush draw (four cards of a suit, at least one of them yours) or an eight-out straight draw (open-ended or double gutshot). Draw rows include flops where you also hold a pair; they leave out flops where you already have the flush, and straight draws leave out flops where you already have the straight.
Flop odds chart
Exact results for common starting-hand types, from the same count. Percentages are rounded to two decimals; odds against are (flops that miss) ÷ (flops that hit).
Holding a pocket pair (any pair, here 8-8)
| Result on the flop | Flops | Chance | Odds against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Set or better (at least one more of your rank) | 2,304 | 11.76% | 7.5 to 1 |
| Exactly a set (three of a kind, nothing more) | 2,112 | 10.78% | 8.3 to 1 |
| Full house: set plus a pair on the board | 144 | 0.73% | 135.1 to 1 |
| Full house: three of a kind on the board | 48 | 0.24% | 407.3 to 1 |
| Four of a kind | 48 | 0.24% | 407.3 to 1 |
| Two pair: your pair plus a pair on the board | 3,168 | 16.16% | 5.2 to 1 |
| No set (still just your pair or two pair) | 17,296 | 88.24% | – |
Holding two unpaired cards (any ranks)
| Result on the flop | Flops | Chance | Odds against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pair at least one of your cards | 6,356 | 32.43% | 2.1 to 1 |
| Two pair using both of your cards | 396 | 2.02% | 48.5 to 1 |
| Trips: two more of one of your ranks | 284 | 1.45% | 68.0 to 1 |
| Neither card pairs | 13,244 | 67.57% | – |
Holding two suited cards
| Result on the flop | Flops | Chance | Odds against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush (including the rare straight flush) | 165 | 0.84% | 117.8 to 1 |
| Flush draw: exactly four cards of your suit | 2,145 | 10.94% | 8.1 to 1 |
| Backdoor flush draw: exactly three of your suit | 8,151 | 41.59% | 1.4 to 1 |
| For comparison, flush draw with two offsuit cards | 440 | 2.24% | 43.5 to 1 |
Flopping a straight, by how connected your cards are
| Hand (offsuit) | Type | Made straight | Odds against | 8-out straight draw | Gutshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J-T | Connectors | 1.31% | 75.6 to 1 | 9.71% | 16.82% |
| 5-4 | Connectors | 1.31% | 75.6 to 1 | 9.71% | 16.82% |
| J-9 | One gap | 0.98% | 101.1 to 1 | 7.02% | 14.78% |
| J-8 | Two gaps | 0.65% | 152.1 to 1 | 4.65% | 13.39% |
| J-7 | Three gaps | 0.33% | 305.3 to 1 | 2.29% | 12.00% |
| A-K | Only one straight | 0.33% | 305.3 to 1 | 0.00% | 11.35% |
| A-2 | Only the wheel | 0.33% | 305.3 to 1 | 0.00% | 11.35% |
| K-2 | Too far apart to make one | 0.00% | impossible | 0.65% | 3.92% |
Suited versions are almost identical: a few of the straights become straight flushes instead. "8-out straight draw" covers open-ended draws and double gutshots; "gutshot" is a draw to one rank (four outs). Draw columns leave out flops where you already have a straight.
Odds of being dealt each starting hand
| Starting hand | Combinations | Chance | Odds against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any pocket pair | 78 | 5.88% | 16.0 to 1 |
| One specific pair, such as A-A | 6 | 0.45% | 220.0 to 1 |
| Any two suited cards | 312 | 23.53% | 3.3 to 1 |
| A-K, suited or offsuit | 16 | 1.21% | 81.9 to 1 |
| A-K suited | 4 | 0.30% | 330.5 to 1 |
Out of 1,326 possible two-card hands (52 × 51 ÷ 2).
01
How flop odds are counted
Once you've seen your two cards, 50 cards are left that you can't see. The flop is any three of them, and there are 50 × 49 × 48 ÷ 6 = 19,600 different flops, all equally likely. Your opponents' cards don't change this: you don't know them, so from your point of view they're just part of the 50 unseen cards. That's why the chance of flopping a set is the same heads-up or nine-handed.
Worked example: flopping a set
You hold 8♠8♥. Two eights are left in the deck. The flops with no eight are any three of the other 48 cards: 48 × 47 × 46 ÷ 6 = 17,296. So 19,600 − 17,296 = 2,304 flops contain at least one eight, which is 2,304 ÷ 19,600 = 11.76%. Odds against are 17,296 ÷ 2,304 = 7.5 to 1.
Of those 2,304 flops, 48 give you quads (both eights come) and 144 give you a full house with a set (one eight plus a pair on the board). That leaves 2,112 flops, or 10.78%, where you have exactly three of a kind.
Worked example: flopping a flush
With two hearts, 11 hearts are left. A made flush needs all three flop cards to be hearts: 11 × 10 × 9 ÷ 6 = 165 flops, or 0.84% (about 118 to 1). A flush draw needs exactly two hearts and one other card: 55 × 39 = 2,145 flops, or 10.94%.
Why different charts show different numbers
- "Exactly" versus "or better". The set figure is 10.78% if you count only plain three of a kind and 11.76% if you include full houses and quads. Both are right; they answer different questions.
- Board-only hands. A pocket pair also makes a full house when the board comes three of a kind, for example 8-8 on 7-7-7. Counting only flops that contain your rank gives a full house 0.73% of the time; adding those 48 trips boards gives 0.98%.
- "One pair" versus "pairing your card". Two unpaired cards end with exactly one pair 40.41% of the time, but that includes paired boards where your cards play no part. Pairing at least one of your own cards happens 32.43% of the time.
- Which ranks you hold. J-T can make four different straights, but A-K can only make one (A-K-Q-J-T), so A-K flops a straight a quarter as often. Suited hands also lose a few straights to straight flushes.
02
What flop odds tell you at the table
Flop odds describe what happens before any betting on the flop. Once the flop is out, switch to counting outs and comparing your equity with the price of a call, which the pot odds calculator does for the turn and river.
Simplified example, not a strategy rule: say you call 3 big blinds before the flop with a small pocket pair, planning to continue only if you flop a set. At 7.5 to 1 against, you'd need to win about 7.5 × 3 = 22.5 big blinds more, on average, in the hands where you do flop a set just to cover the calls you lose when you miss. That ignores sets that lose, pots you win without a set, and later bets, so treat it as a sense check on stack depth rather than a promise of profit. Players call this idea "implied odds".
The other numbers help keep expectations honest. Unpaired hands miss the board about two times in three, and even suited connectors flop a made flush less than one time in a hundred. Most of a suited hand's extra value comes from draws, not from flopping the finished hand.
Flop odds quiz
Ten questions on the numbers above. Pick an answer to see the working.
Question 1 of 10
03
FAQ
What are the odds of flopping a set?
With any pocket pair, 11.76% for a set or better (7.5 to 1 against), or 10.78% for exactly three of a kind without a full house or quads.
What are the odds of flopping a flush?
With two suited cards, 0.84% (about 118 to 1). With two cards of different suits a flush on the flop is impossible, because you'd need four flop cards of one suit.
How often do you flop a flush draw?
With suited cards, 10.94% of flops give you exactly four cards of your suit. With offsuit cards it's 2.24%, which needs three flop cards matching one of your suits.
What are the odds of flopping a straight?
It depends on the gap between your cards: about 1.3% for connectors like J-T or 5-4, 0.98% for one-gappers like J-9, 0.65% for two-gappers like J-8 and 0.33% for three-gappers like J-7. Pocket pairs and cards five or more ranks apart can't flop a straight.
How often does an unpaired hand hit the flop?
At least one of your two cards pairs on 32.43% of flops. You flop two pair using both cards 2.02% of the time and trips (two more of one of your ranks) 1.45% of the time.
Does the number of players change flop odds?
No. You don't see the other players' cards, so the flop is still three cards from the 50 you haven't seen. More players change how often your hand wins, not how often the flop hits it.
Are these odds simulated?
No. Every figure on this page is an exact count over all 19,600 possible flops, checked by two separate programs that gave identical results.
Related: Pot odds calculator · Poker outs quiz · Poker hand combos · Poker showdown trainer · Poker hand rankings