FREE CALCULATOR · TOURNAMENTS · PRACTICE ONLY
Poker ICM calculator
Turn tournament chip stacks into their prize-pool value with the Independent Chip Model, and compare an ICM deal with a chip chop side by side. Exact maths for up to 10 players, nothing saved.
ICM gives each stack its share of the remaining prizes, not its share of the chips. It works out how likely each player is to finish in every paid place (your chance of winning equals your share of the chips), then multiplies those chances by the prizes. Big stacks end up worth less than their chip share and short stacks worth more, because nobody can win more than first prize.
ICM and deal calculator
Enter the chip count of every player still in and the prizes that are still left to pay, highest first. Prizes can be in any currency or points. Results are exact (no simulation) and update as you type.
Players and chips
Prizes still to pay
Places are filled to match the number of players. Leave a place at 0 if it is unpaid.
Taken off 1st prize before the deal is split and paid to whoever wins. Cannot exceed the gap between 1st and 2nd prize.
| Player | Chips | Chip share | ICM value | Chip chop | Chip chop with floor | ICM minus chip chop |
|---|
Chance of finishing in each place (ICM model)
ICM values are rounded for display; the unrounded figures always add up to the prize pool in the deal. Chip chop with floor: every player first takes the smallest prize still on offer, then the rest is split by chips.
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How ICM works, step by step
The Independent Chip Model comes from a horse-racing formula published by David Harville in 1973 and was later applied to poker tournaments (it is often called the Malmuth-Harville method). It makes one key assumption: the chance that a player finishes ahead of everyone still left is that player's share of the chips still in play.
- First place. A player with 50% of the chips wins 50% of the time.
- Second place. Remove the winner and repeat with the chips that are left. If Alice (50%) wins, Bob's chance of second is his 30,000 out of the remaining 50,000, so 60%.
- Every finishing order. Multiply the steps together to get the chance of each full order, for example Charlie 1st, Alice 2nd, Bob 3rd = 0.20 x 0.625 = 12.5%.
- Value. For each player, add up prize x probability across every place. That sum is the ICM value (also called $EV or equity).
The calculator does this for every possible finishing order, using a shortcut that keeps 10 players instant, so the numbers are exact for the model.
02
Worked example: three players, $1,500 left
This is the example PokerNews uses in its deal-making guide (Duncan Palamourdas, 2020), recomputed here. Prizes left: $900, $400 and $200.
| Player | Chips | Equal chop | Chip chop | Chip chop with floor | ICM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | 50,000 | $500 | $750 | $650 | $617.86 |
| Bob | 30,000 | $500 | $450 | $470 | $485.00 |
| Charlie | 20,000 | $500 | $300 | $380 | $397.14 |
A chip chop hands Alice $750, but the most she can ever win is $900 and she can still finish third. ICM prices that in and moves about $132 from the chip leader to the two shorter stacks. The "floor" version sits in between: everyone locks in $200 first, then the remaining $900 is split by chips.
03
Using the numbers in a deal
- A deal needs every remaining player to agree, and the tournament staff or site has to allow it. Rules differ by room, so ask the tournament director before negotiating.
- Leaving money to play for keeps the tournament meaningful: the calculator removes that amount from 1st prize, values the rest, and the full amount goes to whoever wins.
- Treat ICM as a starting point, not a verdict. It ignores skill differences, position, the blind level and how deep the stacks are. PokerNews's follow-up on ICM's shortcomings makes the point that with deep stacks a strong chip leader can reasonably ask for more, and with shallow stacks luck dominates and ICM is closer to fair.
- Short stacks usually gain from ICM, big stacks from chip chop. The last column of the calculator shows exactly how much each method shifts.
This page explains maths. It is not advice on whether to accept a deal, and it says nothing about tax, which depends on where you live.
04
FAQ
Why is the chip leader's ICM value lower than their chip share?
Chips have diminishing value in a tournament. Doubling your stack does not double your prize because first place is capped, while the chips you lose can cost you whole pay jumps.
Do I enter the whole prize pool?
No. Enter only the prizes still to be paid to the players left. Money already paid to eliminated players is not part of the deal.
Is this exact or simulated?
Exact for the model. Every finishing order is counted, nothing is sampled. The model itself is an approximation of real play.
Why only 10 players?
ICM is mostly used at a final table. Exact calculation grows very fast with more players, so this page stops at 10 to stay instant on a phone.
Does ICM tell me which hands to play?
Not by itself. Players use ICM inside push/fold and final-table study tools to compare decisions, but this page only values stacks and deals.
Is anything stored or uploaded?
No. Everything runs in your browser and is cleared when you close the page.
05
Sources and checks
Model: D. A. Harville, "Assigning probabilities to the outcomes of multi-entry competitions", Journal of the American Statistical Association 68 (342), 1973, pp. 312-316 (DOI). Worked example and deal methods: PokerNews, How to Make a Deal in a Poker Tournament (2020), whose rounded ICM figures ($618 / $485 / $397) this calculator reproduces; limits of ICM: PokerNews, Examining Shortcomings of ICM (2019). Checked 9 November 2026. The calculator was tested against a brute-force count of every finishing order on 60 random tables, a heads-up closed form and winner-take-all cases.
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